Articles About outlook
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Third-quarter earnings are confirming the worst-case scenario, i.e. â” not only are energy related end markets in a downturn, but conditions continue to worsen.
Third-quarter earnings confirmed the worst-case scenario â” plunging oil prices are whacking almost the entire industrial sector. The theme is hardly new, as the pattern of our headlines has revealed over the past fifteen or so months:
Our âœBatten Down The Hatchesâ call proved timely as the market sold off by about (10 percent) before staging a partial recovery
We just returned from WEFTEC â” the premier U.S. water and wastewater management show. Our recent discussion (Game Changer) highlighted the negative impact of low oil prices.
We anticipate no substantive improvement in manufacturing activity. Not in the U.S. or internationally. If anything, headwinds may have become slightly more pronounced because a U.S. â” Iran âœdealâ that everybody hates except a) the Iranian government and b) the Obama administration will result in the release of Iranian oil supply back onto the global market. Oil had rallied from about $50 to $60 over the past month (I like round numbers), but has since roundtripped. Expect further, deeper capital spending cuts in the U.S. oil sector to continue affecting demand for large capital equipment.
Global economic activity remains good -- noise about China slowing, notwithstanding -- and despite the ObamaCare debacle, non-Christmas-related consumer spending looks pretty good. Europe is still Europe and China continues to grow 7-8 percent -- even as the government seeks to clamp down on its own shadow banking system. And India remains a mess.
First quarter results confirmed our view. Capital expenditures are being slashed in the oil sector, the stronger U.S. dollar is enabling Japanese machinery competitors to gain share in the Middle East and Latin America, and lower soft commodity prices translate into a continuing North American decline in demand for farm equipment.
Global economic demand remains solid - even if you couldn't tell by recent third-quarter results and despite all efforts by U.S. politicians of both political parties. Let's go through what happened and what is coming.
I've always been a big fan of thunderstorms. I especially enjoy that quiet moment of anticipation right after you see a flash of lightning. There's a tension in the air, a sense of excitement. You know what's coming, and you wait for it...I feel like we're in that moment, right now. We're waiting for the boom.
End market conditions for the power transmission industry continue to worsen. With the Euro down 13% year to date and U.S. oil production surging we are seeing increasing headwinds, if not storm clouds, for the sector.
The number one question today is: are the current low oil prices a near-term or structural development?
End market conditions for the power transmission industry have arguably worsened since our last column. In December we stated that with two armed conflicts underway impacting economic performance in Eastern Europe and the Middle East our stance was âœBuy on the Sound of Cannonsâ¦. Selectivelyâ while cautioning PTE readers not to be sanguine.
With two armed conflicts underway impacting economic performance in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, we continue our investment stance of âœBuy on the Sound of Cannons â” Selectivelyâ â” but readers of Power Transmission Engineering should not be sanguine. Geopolitics is beginning to exert significant pressure on several end markets: I specifically refer to oil price. West Texas Intermediate or WTI has dropped from its $95-105 trading range in late spring to about $75 â” about a (25%) drop despite wo ongoing conflicts because of excess supply.
Since our last appearance in this space we've attended the Paris Air Show and met with companies involved in oil production, hydraulic fracturing and wind turbine towers and components. As an investment analyst I am always seeking to help my clients anticipate change in order to manage risk and capture alpha (positive returns relative to market). But as a regular columnist for Power Transmission Engineering, I also seek insights that can help your organization do the same. Here is what we've found...
Fourth quarter results were above expectations for most U.S. machinery companies, including significant revenue beats at Cummins, Caterpillar, Oshkosh Corp and PACCAR with strong North American truck demand, improving construction equipment markets and general stability elsewhere.
We have just returned from the Electrical Products Group Conference in Sarasota, Florida. This is our favorite venue because it allows us to speak with the CEOs of nearly 25 global industrial companies that include General Electric, United Technologies, Honeywell, ABB and Emerson, with combined revenue of perhaps $500 billion.
Columnist Brian Langenberg provides a current outlook update, key findings from a recent energy sector conference, and takes another look at education and employment.
News Items About outlook
1 PT/MC Market Outlook Data Reports Mixed Results (July 23, 2008)
The Power Transmission Distributors Association (PTDA) released the April 2008 month-end trend data for distributors and manufacturers o...
2 NEMA Forecasts 2013 Outlook (January 31, 2013)
NEMA’s January Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI) for current North American business conditions built on the moment...
3 ASQ 2016 Outlook Survey Reports on Quality Segment (December 24, 2015)
An increasing number of manufacturers now struggle to find qualified applicants for open positions, according to data from the ASQ 2016 M...
4 PTDA Releases Latest Sales History & Outlook Report (November 22, 2016)
The second quarter Sales History & Outlook Report (SHOR) released by the Power Transmission Distributors Association (PTDA) shows pow...