global industrial outlook
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Our âœBatten Down The Hatchesâ call proved timely as the market sold off by about (10 percent) before staging a partial recovery
Third-quarter earnings confirmed the worst-case scenario â” plunging oil prices are whacking almost the entire industrial sector. The theme is hardly new, as the pattern of our headlines has revealed over the past fifteen or so months:
First quarter results confirmed our view. Capital expenditures are being slashed in the oil sector, the stronger U.S. dollar is enabling Japanese machinery competitors to gain share in the Middle East and Latin America, and lower soft commodity prices translate into a continuing North American decline in demand for farm equipment.
Third-quarter earnings are confirming the worst-case scenario, i.e. â” not only are energy related end markets in a downturn, but conditions continue to worsen.
We anticipate no substantive improvement in manufacturing activity. Not in the U.S. or internationally. If anything, headwinds may have become slightly more pronounced because a U.S. â” Iran âœdealâ that everybody hates except a) the Iranian government and b) the Obama administration will result in the release of Iranian oil supply back onto the global market. Oil had rallied from about $50 to $60 over the past month (I like round numbers), but has since roundtripped. Expect further, deeper capital spending cuts in the U.S. oil sector to continue affecting demand for large capital equipment.
Global economic activity remains good -- noise about China slowing, notwithstanding -- and despite the ObamaCare debacle, non-Christmas-related consumer spending looks pretty good. Europe is still Europe and China continues to grow 7-8 percent -- even as the government seeks to clamp down on its own shadow banking system. And India remains a mess.
We just returned from WEFTEC â” the premier U.S. water and wastewater management show. Our recent discussion (Game Changer) highlighted the negative impact of low oil prices.
Global economic demand remains solid - even if you couldn't tell by recent third-quarter results and despite all efforts by U.S. politicians of both political parties. Let's go through what happened and what is coming.
Fourth quarter results were above expectations for most U.S. machinery companies, including significant revenue beats at Cummins, Caterpillar, Oshkosh Corp and PACCAR with strong North American truck demand, improving construction equipment markets and general stability elsewhere.
Since our last appearance in this space we've attended the Paris Air Show and met with companies involved in oil production, hydraulic fracturing and wind turbine towers and components. As an investment analyst I am always seeking to help my clients anticipate change in order to manage risk and capture alpha (positive returns relative to market). But as a regular columnist for Power Transmission Engineering, I also seek insights that can help your organization do the same. Here is what we've found...
We have just returned from the Electrical Products Group Conference in Sarasota, Florida. This is our favorite venue because it allows us to speak with the CEOs of nearly 25 global industrial companies that include General Electric, United Technologies, Honeywell, ABB and Emerson, with combined revenue of perhaps $500 billion.
With two armed conflicts underway impacting economic performance in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, we continue our investment stance of âœBuy on the Sound of Cannons â” Selectivelyâ â” but readers of Power Transmission Engineering should not be sanguine. Geopolitics is beginning to exert significant pressure on several end markets: I specifically refer to oil price. West Texas Intermediate or WTI has dropped from its $95-105 trading range in late spring to about $75 â” about a (25%) drop despite wo ongoing conflicts because of excess supply.
End market conditions for the power transmission industry continue to worsen. With the Euro down 13% year to date and U.S. oil production surging we are seeing increasing headwinds, if not storm clouds, for the sector.
The number one question today is: are the current low oil prices a near-term or structural development?
End market conditions for the power transmission industry have arguably worsened since our last column. In December we stated that with two armed conflicts underway impacting economic performance in Eastern Europe and the Middle East our stance was âœBuy on the Sound of Cannonsâ¦. Selectivelyâ while cautioning PTE readers not to be sanguine.
The complete Industry News section from the June 2011 issue of Power Transmission Engineering.
The complete Industry News section from the June 2017 issue of Power Transmission Engineering.
Automate 2017 (April 3-6) will showcase the full spectrum of automation technologies and solutions, from traditional industrial applications to cutting edge new technologies.
The complete Product News section from the December 2017 issue of Power Transmission Engineering, featuring the latest from SKF, R+W, Brecoflex, Nexen, GÃ¼del, Renold Gears, Hansford Sensors, Ogura Industrial, Igus, Destaco, RÃ¶hm and Iwis.
I've always been a big fan of thunderstorms. I especially enjoy that quiet moment of anticipation right after you see a flash of lightning. There's a tension in the air, a sense of excitement. You know what's coming, and you wait for it...I feel like we're in that moment, right now. We're waiting for the boom.
If there are two things that are in tight supply in the industry, it's time and talent. Manufacturers are always pressured to do more faster, and the industry is producing fewer experts to help them do it, so the industry's had to get crafty and find what time-cutting procedures they can.
The Latest Clutch & Brake Technology Looks at Reliability, Cost and Design Specifications.
New products within the Industry
It's a fact that drive systems wouldn't function properly or efficiently without couplings. They quietly go about their business of transferring motion from one drive element to the next. In the PT market today, couplings have the unique challenge of satisfying a variety of customer needs including tighter tolerances, higher speeds and a more versatile selection process.
Wichita Clutch helps drive storm simulator at the University of Florida.
The complete Product News section from the December 2013 issue of Power Transmission Engineering.
The complete Product News section from the December 2011 issue of Power Transmission Engineering.
The complete Product News section from the December 2010 issue of Power Transmission Engineering
The complete Product News section from the August 2014 issue of Power Transmission Engineering
With the addition of Industrial Automation North America (IANA) as well as Motion, Drive & Automation North America(MDA NA), IMTS 2014 has greatly expanded its range of manufacturing technology services. These co-located shows complement the metalworking solutions found at IMTS by bringing in key suppliers from around the world.
Latest news from around the Industry
The revolution goes by many names: machine-to-machine communication, smart manufacturing and the Industrial Internet, to name a few. In Europe, the prevailing term is Industry 4.0. In Germany, where that phrase was coined, the government is putting down â‚¬200 million to cultivate a lead in the industry. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that its potential economic impact will be almost $4 trillion (or more) by 2025. Enthusiastic evangelists will tell you that the Industrial Internet is the most important advance in their industries that theyâ™ve seen in their decades-long careers.
âœ[Motion, Drive & Automation] at Hannover Messe is the place where the future is determined.â
News from around the Industry
A nose-in-the-tent peek at the booths featuring mechanical motion components.